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31 janvier

Laboratory Notes 2

                                
                                Download PDF Version
                                          Download PDF Version: http://shenxia.webng.com/R/LabNote2.pdf
30 janvier

MacBook Air - The World's Thinnest Notebook !

图像 “http://images.apple.com/macbookair/images/overview_header20080115.png” 因其本身有错无法显示。 http://www.laptoplogic.com/data/news/images/4283/macbookair.jpg

MacBook Air is ultrathin, ultraportable, and ultra unlike anything else. But you don’t lose inches and pounds overnight. It’s the result of rethinking conventions. Of multiple wireless innovations. And of breakthrough design. With MacBook Air, mobile computing suddenly has a new standard.

Learn More

图像 “http://images.apple.com/macbookair/images/overview_design_img20080115.jpg” 因其本身有错无法显示。 What makes the Air so thin?

MacBook Air is nearly as thin as your index finger. Practically every detail that could be streamlined has been. Yet it still has a 13.3-inch widescreen LED display, full-size keyboard, and large multi-touch trackpad. It’s incomparably portable without the usual ultraportable screen and keyboard compromises.

图像 “http://images.apple.com/macbookair/images/overview_features_img20080115.jpg” 因其本身有错无法显示。 So many innovations. So little space.

The incredible thinness of MacBook Air is the result of numerous size- and weight-shaving innovations. From a slimmer hard drive to strategically hidden I/O ports to a lower-profile battery, everything has been considered and reconsidered with thinness in mind.

图像 “http://images.apple.com/macbookair/images/overview_wireless_img20080115.jpg” 因其本身有错无法显示。 Built for the wireless world.

MacBook Air is designed and engineered to take full advantage of the wireless world. A world in which 802.11n Wi-Fi is now so fast and so available, people are truly living untethered — buying and renting movies online, downloading software, and sharing and storing files on the web.

Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection

Multimodel Inference:
Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection

Kenneth P. Burnham
David R. Anderson
Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit (USGS-BRD)
 
 

Download PDF Version
27 janvier

Djokovic's Open Title

Novak Djokovic looks for divine intervention
Novak Djokovic has overcome injury to become Serbia's first Grand Slam singles champion, claiming the Australian Open men's crown with a four-set win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Melbourne Park.
 
Having not dropped a set en route to the final, the world No.3 had to do it the hard way, firstly rallying from a set down and then also battling a hamstring strain that he suffered early in the fourth set to beat unseeded Frenchman Tsonga 4-6 6-4 6-3 7-6 (7-2).
 
With Djokovic's movement restricted after he sustained the injury, the decider looked headed for a fifth set for the first time since Melbourne Park's first men's final 20 years ago when Mats Wilander beat Pat Cash.
 
But while Tsonga tried hard throughout, he was unable to capitalise on Djokovic's ailment despite enjoying more support from the packed centre-court crowd, with the 20-year-old Belgrade native digging deep to capture the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup.
 
Both players began the match nervously, with Tsonga dropping his serve after his opening salvo went long by about a metre, only for Djokovic to likewise surrender his own first service game.
 
Both players came close to dropping their serves again, firstly Djokovic in the fourth game and then Tsonga in the fifth, before Tsonga served three straight aces to hold in the ninth game and then broke in the 10th to win the set with a forehand winner and then a lob.
 
Games went with serve early in the second set until the seventh game when a couple of errors from the Frenchman and then a reflex, defensive return from Djokovic for a winner led to the break that eventually gave Djokovic the set.
 
With Tsonga's unforced errors piling up Djokovic upped the ante with another break in the third game of the third set and then finally broke again in the ninth game after Tsonga had saved six set points.
 
The momentum looked to have changed early in the fourth set though when Djokovic injured himself stretching for a volley, and he called for treatment while leading 3-2.
 
With Djokovic trying to keep the points shorter in an attempt to win the match in four sets, Tsonga was nonetheless unable to make the most of the changed circumstances as his own weariness kicked in.
 
The set eventually went to a tie-breaker after Tsonga held in the 12th game soon after calling for the crowd to make some noise, but it was Djokovic who raced away with it by winning five of the first six points and he fell to his back in delight when he sealed victory.
 
Rod Laver Arena - Men's Singles - Finals
 
Novak Djokovic SRB (3)      4  6  6  7(7)

 
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA       6  4  3  6(2)
26 janvier

Sharapova savours sweet success

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Australian Open 2008 women's singles champion Maria Sharapova says her victory is just reward for all the hard work she has put in over recent months.

Sharapova struggled with injury for much of 2007 but finally managed to shake off most of her ailments in the latter part of the year and returned to some of the tennis that she's renowned for when she reached the final at the WTA Tour Championships.

And having avenged her defeat to Justine Henin in that final in Madrid when she won her quarter-final against the Belgian world No.1 earlier this week, Sharapova completed her third Grand Slam win with a 7-5 6-3 defeat of Serbian Ana Ivanovic.

"So exciting, it's amazing," she said of her feelings about her latest triumph. "Sometimes you just … when you're putting the work in it just seems so, so hard, and you never know when that work's gonna pay off."

"When you're going through tough moments, you never know when you're going to have good moments. I'm just so thankful that I got this one."

But having been humbled by unseeded American Serena Williams in the corresponding match 12 months ago when she was the No.1 seed, Sharapova denied that she had any extra motivation this time around in an event in which she didn't drop a set.

"No, just satisfying, period, to win a Grand Slam, and to win one that you've never won before, especially after some of the tough losses that I've had," Sharapova said when asked if she was more satisfied to win it in light of her loss in 2007.

"The feeling is just so weird, because with every match you play, you finish the match and you think, there's one more to go and you've got to concentrate. Although you just beat a top player, you played really good tennis, you always feel like there's one more to go."

"And right now there's no more to go, and I just can't feel that yet, you know. I feel like I still have to get up tomorrow and play another match," a smiling Sharapova added. "But it will settle in - I hope - really soon. I mean, I don't have a match till next week."

Having come close to being ousted in the first round in 2007 when a scorching Melbourne day almost brought her undone, Sharapova was much more comfortable in the warm conditions on Saturday.

"When I was in Singapore a couple weeks ago it was so hot and humid out there," she said.

"I got to practice there for about three days outdoors. It was great, because when I got out on the court today, I was like, 'This is a piece of cake'."

"Even though it's hot, it wasn't nearly as hot as it was over there. You know, just mentally going into the match I didn't really care. Whatever it took, I was just gonna try to do everything I could to win that match."

While unsure at first whether she could say that her greater Grand Slam final experience had helped her, Sharapova did confirm that to be the case when she cast her mind back to the pivotal 10th game of the first set.

"When I was down 0-30 on my serve, when she had that opportunity to break me and win that set, I think experience definitely helped me because I didn't get impatient," Sharapova said. "I was just steady. I knew that, you know, it was for her to take."

"I mean, she's two points away from winning the first set in a Grand Slam final. You know, if you want it, take it. And she didn't. Was that experience? I was just calm. I just did the right things."

Having also revealed after her win that she has regular contact with former star Billie Jean King, and was in touch with her both before and after the final, Sharapova ominously warned her rivals she thinks her game can still improve.

"I know I've already won three Grand Slams, I know I keep saying this, but I don't think I'm at the peak of my career yet," she said. "I don't think my body has 100 per cent developed into its own."

"I've got many more things to learn, you know, in my tennis, and many things to build and improve. That takes time. It's not an overnight process. It's something that I look forward to.

Sharapova is obviously confident any time she enters a Grand Slam that she can go all the way, but two of her biggest goals for the rest of 2008 would surely be trying to complete a career slam and also success at the Beijing Olympics.

And if she can maintain the stellar form that took her to this breakthrough on Saturday, few would bet against the Russian being right in the hunt at the business end of many major tournaments for years to come.

GLM - Laboratory Notes 1

 
              Download PDF Version: http://shenxia.webng.com/R/LabNote1.pdf

              Download RODBC Package: http://shenxia.webng.com/R/RODBC_1.2-2.zip

              Download RODBC Reference Manual: http://shenxia.webng.com/R/RODBC.pdf

http://shenxia.webng.com/R/LabNote11.jpghttp://shenxia.webng.com/R/LabNote12.jpg

Federer praises Djokovic

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Deposed champion and world No.1 Roger Federer has lauded the performance of his Australian Open 2008 semi-final conqueror Novak Djokovic.

Bidding for a place in his 11th successive Grand Slam final, needing a 20th consecutive victory at Melbourne Park to achieve the feat, Federer was out of sorts for all but the first eight games of the match.

The 12-time Grand Slam champion led 5-3 with a break in the opener but from there Serbian No.3 seed Djokovic made all the running as he won five games in a row and nine of the next 10 to take a stranglehold on the match.

Federer, who entered the tournament with no official match play under his belt this year following an illness, did his best to fight back in the third set but it was to no avail as Djokovic weathered everything he could throw at him and prevailed 7-5 6-3 7-6 (7-5).

"There's no doubt I've played better in my life," Federer said afterwards. "I've not been really serving like the way I wanted to, maybe the last few matches. Look, it happens. But he covered the court well. He didn't give me much."

"So that obviously played a role in the way I played tonight. But … I wasn't completely satisfied. He's come through the draw convincingly. He's been playing very solid. He had a tough draw, you know, if I compare it to maybe Rafa's (Rafael Nadal's). So he absolutely deserves to be in the final."

Having started the tournament in convincing fashion, particularly when he conceded just three games against Fabrice Santoro in the second round, Federer had to dig deep to get through his third-round meeting with Djokovic's compatriot Janko Tipsarevic.

And while he followed that victory with straight-sets wins over Czech Tomas Berdych and American James Blake, Federer added later that he hasn't felt completely comfortable throughout the fortnight.

"No, I don't, I didn't think I was moving that great," he said. "I think I played really well the first two matches, in terms of movement also. I don't know if the surface got a bit quicker."

"I definitely wasn't as good on the defensive like I usually am. I couldn't come up with the passing shot when I needed to. Yeah, that definitely hurt me, especially today."

Still coming to terms with the defeat when he faced reporters shortly after the match was over, Federer did manage to find some positives in the fact that he made Djokovic earn the win.

"There's some sort of a disappointment. But, you know, from the spirit, the way I fought, the way I tried, it's all I could give, you know," he said. "When you give a hundred per cent, you know, you're sort of happy with your performance."

"It can't always go your way. I know that. I've won, many, many times when I didn't expect myself to win. So tonight's one of those nights where you're a little bit disappointed. But it's going to go over and I'm going to look forward to the rest of the year."

According to Federer though, the turning point of the match was clearly when he dropped his own serve at 5-4 in the first set when he was serving for it.

"We all know if I would have served it out the match would have been a bit different," Federer said. "Sure, he could have come back and still beaten me, but circumstances of would have been different. He wouldn't have played that freely in the second set."

"He usually doesn't play that well. That was unfortunate for me. You know, I paid the price twice, not only losing the set, but also the second set. You know, I missed many opportunities the third set."

"But, like I said, he came up with some great shots, some great serves, and, you know, saved himself that way."

Federer may have suffered his first loss at Melbourne Park since Marat Safin beat him in the semi-finals three years ago in a five-set thriller on the way to taking the title but it's a sure bet he'll be back gunning for his fourth Australian Open title in 2009.

Djokovic reaps the rewards

图像 “http://www.australianopen.com/images/pics/large/b_djokovic9_0125.jpg” 因其本身有错无法显示。

Novak Djokovic says his place in Sunday's Australian Open 2008 men's singles final is just reward for the hard work he has put in over the past 18 months.

The 20-year-old Serbian claimed the biggest win of his flourishing career on Day 12 at Melbourne Park, maintaining his record of winning each of his matches in straight sets with a 7-5 6-3 7-6 (7-5) win over world No.1 Roger Federer.

But while he was still pinching himself afterwards, having recorded just his second win in seven career meetings against the two-time defending champion, Djokovic was delighted with his reward.

"Well, honestly, everything is going so fast for me," he said. "As I was saying, if you tell me at the start of last year that I will play four consecutive semi-finals in Grand Slams and two finals, I would accept it right away."

"That's no doubt. So I can say that it's a little bit surprising. But, again, I've been working very hard in the past year-and-a-half, so it's paying off right now."

Djokovic dominated from the middle stages of the first set through to the same point of the second, claiming the first and setting himself up to do likewise in the second by winning five games in succession and nine out of 10.

And apart from the actual result itself, he added that perhaps the most pleasing aspect was that he had been able to withstand a strong Federer challenge in the third set before prevailing to set up his Sunday clash with unseeded Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

"Well, yes, that was one of the positive facts, I think, in tonight's match, I was able to deal with the pressure in the best possible way," Djokovic added. "And if you do that against the best player in the world, you know, you should get the positive outcome, which resulted of course with the win tonight."

"I'm very happy that in crucial moments my serve was serving me, and it was probably my best element in the game tonight in the important moments. So it is a positive thing for the future."

When Federer served for the first set at 5-3 many observers may have felt that he was well on the way to his fifth Melbourne Park final in six years but his 19-match winning streak at the year's first Grand Slam was ended as Djokovic maintained his faith.

"I was just trying to keep the momentum, you know, just keep it going, not to think about the circumstances, you know, I was a break down, I'm already looking at the second set," he said.

"No, I was trying to really focus and play basically every point every game. And only in that way, you know, I was able to win in the straight sets."

Having said immediately after defeating Federer that he felt like he not only had to beat the player on the other side of the net but also the crowd, Djokovic is hoping for a little more support against Tsonga.

"Today it was quite difficult for me," he said. "It's understandable crowd was a little bit more for him, because he's defending champion and No.1 player of the world. But hopefully it's going to be better in the next match. That's what I hope for."

"But as a finalist and as a pretty much experienced player I've been through a lot of situations like this, so this is another big experience for me, playing in front of a full house. You can't have always a crowd behind you. So we'll see what happens on Sunday."

With Tsonga set to light up Rod Laver arena one more time for this event on Sunday, Djokovic may again be forced to play the villain if he is to claim his maiden Grand Slam title but one gets the feeling he will have no problems dealing with that if necessary.

Tsonga stunner stops Nadal

图像 “http://www.australianopen.com/images/pics/large/b_jtsonga_0124_03.jpg” 因其本身有错无法显示。

The underdog story is alive and well at Australian Open 2008 after unseeded Frenchman Jo-Wlfried Tsonga disposed of Spaniard Rafael Nadal with an emphatic 6-2 6-3 6-2 win.

The Frenchman came out firing in the opener easing through his first service game before stealing Nadal's off him.

Long rallies wowed a packed Rod Laver Arena as Tsonga scrambled at the net and played perfect drop shots to leave Nadal pondering at the base line.

With a 2-0 lead, the remainder of the first set went on serve until Tsonga decided to finish it off on Nadal's last service game and with three set points in hand he required only one to make it 6-2.

After a brief toilet break Tsonga returned to the court, displaying the same ballerina-like turns and pirouettes that had troubled Nadal in the opening set.

While both men held their first serve it was the 22-year-old Frenchman who got the crowd roaring, urging them to cheer him on.

He decided to make his move while leading at 4-3 and at 40-30 up it was the powerful overhead smash that had Nadal reeling and questioning his renowned forehand.

With three aces and an unforced error from the opposite side of the net handing him the second set at 6-3 the 21-year-old Spaniard was left laughing in disbelief and the crowd giving Tsonga a standing ovation.

Another toilet break for Tsonga and he was back and pumped for set three, while Nadal tried to lift his game.

With two break point opportunities for Nadal in Tsonga's first service game at 15-40 it looked like the No.2 seed was ready to make his move. But a series of unforced errors handed the advantage back, thus ending Nadal's remaining chances.

Tsonga made his first break straight after and although Nadal was able to hold unto his third service game and make it 3-2, he couldn't follow through on the fist pumping and encouragement he fed to himself.

Going with the flow of play, Tsonga broke again taking a 5-2 lead, requiring only one hold of serve to advance to his first Grand Slam final.

He eased to 40-15 in the last game and with a booming ace, just like that, he became a worldwide sensation.

Reacting slowly and in awe of his own efforts at first Tsonga eventually warmed into what has become his trademark jumping and thumbs-up celebration.

Tsonga, who came into the tournament ranked No.38, will next face World No.1 Roger Federer or No.3 Novak Djokovic in the final on Sunday night.


Match Facts
 
-  Tsonga served 17 aces to Nadal’s 2

-  The Frenchman converted 5 of 7 break points while Nadal was unsuccessful with 0 of 3

-  In the second set Tsonga had 22 winners and 11 unforced errors to Nadal’s two winners and one unforced error

-  Both players committed only one double fault for the match

-  The match lasted one hour and 57 minutes

10 janvier

新主页使用受限

看来暂时新主页不太方便,主要是域名webng.com在中国大陆现在仿佛登不进去,这个问题我慢慢研究吧。当然国外的同僚们还是可以去访问的^^
 
转发一个QQ群的留言,挺好玩的~
 
看完《苹果》发现,男人靠不住
看完《色戒》 发现,女人靠不住
看完《投名状》发现,兄弟靠不住
看完《集结号》发现,组织靠不住
看完《妈妈再爱我一次》发现,老爸靠不住
看完《新警察故事》发现,儿子靠不住
看完《满城尽带黄金甲》发现,老婆老公靠不住
看完《红楼梦》发现,祖母和嫂子也靠不住
看完《西游记》发现,师傅靠不住
看完《霍元甲》发现,徒弟靠不住
看完《无间道》发现,警察靠不住
看完《水浒》发现,领导靠不住
看完《肖申克的救赎》发现,出纳靠不住
看完《史密斯夫妇》发现,公司也是靠不住的
看完《无极》发现,馒头靠不住
看完《青蛇》发现,动物靠不住
看完《越狱》发现,牢房靠不住
看完《阳光灿烂的日子》发现,避孕套靠不住
看完《午夜凶铃》发现,电话靠不住,电视更靠不住
看完《疯狂的石头》发现,国际高手是靠不住滴
看完《长江7号》发现,地球人靠不住
看完《变形金刚》发现,外星人也靠不住
看完《黑客帝国》发现,一切现实都靠不住
结论:只有“我”靠得住
简称:我靠!!!

统计学的意义【搞笑版】

    第一次接触统计学,还是在小学时。虽然那时我们还很小,但当时接触的数学模型却非常先进,跳过了加法减法乘法除法平方根自然对数,直接进入了一种类似于微积分的运算:众多的微小量累积成一个巨大量,其模型主体为:“如果每个人节约一度电,那么……”;“只要每个人节约一分钱,那么……”。这是一种所向披靡勇不可挡的数学工具。简而言之,如果遇到一个像锅盖那么大的麻烦,我们马上就能拿出两个锅盖那么大的解决办法;如果遇到一座大山那样重量级的困难,我们马上就能变出三座大山那样重量级的应对方案,而且操作过程是如此地简洁明快与清晰有力:只要大致测算一下面对的问题,反过来除以几亿人民,摊到每个人身上,“如果”一下,问题立即就冰融雪解烟消云散灰飞烟灭,几乎达到了杜甫笔下大宛胡马“所向无空阔,真堪托死生;骁腾有如此,万里可横行”的境界。至今回想起来,那种指点江山、举重若轻、谈笑间决胜千里之外的乐观主义,依然沁人心脾。 
             
    工作以后,接触统计学最多的机会,是在每次的工作总结之时。众所周知,工作总结是一种以乐观精神为主流思想的肯定性文体,统计数据则是支撑这种乐观精神屹立不倒的支柱。这一阶段的统计模型更加进步到非线性数学与混沌理论的层面。比如:第一年有不良资产100亿,减少30亿,成效喜人,还剩下120亿;第二年减少了40亿,成绩显著,还剩下170亿;第三年减少50亿,成果辉煌,还剩下190亿;第四年减少了整整70亿,成就惊人,还仅仅剩下220亿。整个系统看似不可预测的混沌,其实存在着系统的奇异吸引力,确定了系统重复的某种模式、一种滚滚向前不断发展壮大的模式。 
                
    总的来说,自然世界是遵循会计原则的:质量守恒、能量守恒、动量守恒、角动量守恒,无论白云在天还是青水在瓶,一切都会归到会计报表的两端,溪花与禅意,相对亦忘言。而人类社会则偏好统计原理,1969年,第一届诺贝尔经济学奖就是奖给两位喜欢统计的家伙,计量经济学创始人RagnarFrisch(挪威)和宏观计量模型创始人JanTinbergen(荷兰)。英国政治家迪斯雷里说:“世上有三种哄人的东西:谎言、该死的谎言、统计数据”;换一种角度来说,世上有三样激动人心的东西:“宣传、要命的宣传、统计数据”。 
                
    当然,人类社会也是局部地遵循会计原则。比如,世有十毒:吃喝嫖赌抽,坑蒙拐骗偷。显而易见,前五个项目属于资金运用,后五个项目属于资金来源。经常吃喝嫖赌的肯定坑蒙拐骗,经常坑蒙拐骗的难免吃喝嫖赌,有来源必有运用,有运用必有来源,两者必匹配。学问就是学问,道理早就被说透,在路的尽头等候。 
                
    对于一般人而言,和其它专业学科一样,全副武装时的统计学满身上下佩带着专业术语与复杂方程,一个宏观经济计量模型涉及的变量动辄数万个之多,标准差、中位数、常态曲线、离散分配、差异系数、临界区域等等概念、公式、图表像梦呓一样混乱。但当它卸下装备,赤裸入浴时,它总是单纯的。对于拥有话语权的权威者而言,统计只是他们得到支持其论点的一些最终的单纯数字的简单过程。这里面有一个适用广泛的定理:任何事情越到核心,就越简单。“一般的信徒总是要比红衣主教更加虔诚,这就是一切宗教能够存在的秘密。”《安德罗波夫传》一书的扉页上如是说。 

      统计有三大特性,可以用三句话予以简单的概括: 
      实用性:除了实情,数据能证明一切。 
      丰富性:统计就像比基尼,露出来的部位固然诱人,没有露出来的部分才是真正要命的。 
      公平性:我们相信上帝,其它人请用数据说话。 
                
      对于任何一个事件来说,实情只有一条,不实之情却有千条万条,可见统计的用武之地是如此地广阔。王尔德对女性曾经有过类似的赞美:女人对很多事情都非常精明,除了显而易见的事情之外,其它的什么都瞒不了他们(这种夸奖,仅次于邱吉尔先生关于女性比男性更善于保守秘密的赞誉:她们忠心耿耿,担心一个人无法守住这个秘密,所以她们找了许多同伴来一起保护这个秘密)。可见统计学和女性的特点非常相符,加之统计学所拥有的比基尼特征,统计的女人味更加浓郁。 

    民主政治的运作立足于数人头,是统计问题。游戏规则很简单,人头有多少,权利有多少,只要脑袋都是一个,不管是一个手,二个手还是三个手的朋友,权利是相同的。专制政治的运作立足于砍人头,也是统计问题。商鞅变法的中心策略之一就是砍人头统计学,其《军爵律》曰“得甲首一者,赏爵一级,益田一顷,益宅九亩”。拿一个敌人的人头来换爵位一级,一手交钱一手交货。这相当于一个正科级干部砍了一颗人头就能升为副处级干部,外加100亩地和1713平方米的住宅,简直像海洛因一样刺激,于是广大人民群众都亢奋得两眼冒火操起家伙就往前线奔,后来就六王毕、四海一了。有人比较节俭,觉得这种奖励力度好像大了一些,认为可以调整一下汇率,几个人头兑一个爵位比较妥当,这种为饿们秦王勤俭持家的精神是好的,但是统计学告诉我们,人头是有限的,砍得太少不好,砍得太多也不好。如果砍人头的速度大大超过长人头的速度,容易发生社会危机。南美阿兹特克人性格比较纯真,他们不恋权不贪财不好色,生活的惟一爱好就是去砍别人的人头向神献祭,他们的逻辑是完美循环的:只有进行战争才能得到献祭的人,只有用人献祭才能成功地进行战争。当时不少阿兹特克城镇几乎都有堆积如山数以十万计的人头,可见他们都工作得非常勤勉,所以后来大家都累垮了,几百个西班牙人一来,就把他们整个民族摆平了,这就是砍头砍太多的教训。鲁迅先生诗曰: “一阔脸就变,所砍头渐多。忽而又下野,南无阿弥陀”。忽而砍砍头,忽而念念佛,革命生产两不误,这样才是上好之选。就像印度孔雀王朝阿育王,虽然他上任时砍了九十多个兄弟姐妹的人头,最后一仗砍了十几万羯陵伽人的人头,但后来忽而去念念佛了,于是国家安定富足,个人声名也流芳百世,是学习的好榜样。 
                
      统计工作中常常还存在一个问题,有时候需要矫正系统性的偏差,有时这种偏差会很大。电影《美国派》中就论述了三分之一与三倍偏差规律,即:如果一个男生说他和三个女朋友有过亲密接触,别相信,实际数字只是这个数字的三分之一,即一个;如果一个女生说她只和两个男朋友有过亲密接触,也别相信,实际应该是该数字的三倍,即六个。如果忽视了这种系统偏差,统计结果将会南辕北辙。我曾经看到一份号称非常权威并登载在国家级正规刊物上的统计报告,声称根据调查,男性的性伙伴的数量要大大高于女性的性伙伴数量,说明男性更怎么怎么云云。这就是忽略了上述规律而导致的荒诞结果。在只有男女两性、且同性恋因素对男女的影响大致相等的情况下,谁能告诉我男性多出来的那些性伙伴是什么东西? 
                
    伏尔泰说:常识是一种介于聪明和愚蠢之间的东西。日常生活时刻需要的统计,自然也是介于聪明和愚蠢之间的东西,并不?让我们迷乱于不知道世界和我们,到底哪个是蠢的。 
                
      统计有利于培育我们的悲观主义气质,增加我们的危机意识:比如,一个细菌的重量是万分之一克,假如其繁殖分裂完全按照理想情况进行,即15分钟分裂一次,每天分裂96次。一天半以后,其后代的重量将和地球一样;两天以后,其后代的重量将和太阳一样。想到实际情况是我们身边的细菌远远不止一个,到处都有数以百万千万亿万计的细菌在飘荡,就会知道小学时代的类微积分模型其实保守得像一个太谨慎守旧的老者。 
                
     统计也有利于培育我们的乐观主义气质,增强我们对生活的热爱:比如,你有父母两人,祖父母4人,太祖父母8人,假设你的列祖列宗都做到25年一代地结婚生子,倒推到1600年前(相当于东晋时期)的话,就有64代,那时你共有1850亿个祖先,很显然,那时根本没有那么多人,所以你的祖先肯定有重复,即大家远亲结婚混在一起了,也就是说,那时的每一个人,以及折算回现在的每一个人,都有极高的概率,高到几乎可以断定都是你的亲戚。地球一家,世界大同。 
                
     附带说明,如果有人骂你说要干你的十八代祖宗,不要生气、不要忧伤、不要着急,要相信统计、相信科学。根据统计,仅仅以第十八代这一代来算,你的祖宗就共有262144人,而1至18代祖宗则共计有524286人。即使对方鞠躬尽瘁呕心沥血一天干三个,也需要近480年,将近半个世纪。如果要在40年内干完,那么平均一天要干36个,而这样他是无论如何连30岁也活不到的。总之,理论上对方是无法做到,可以放心,可以乐观。 

     统计可以增强我们对历史的接受能力:劳伦斯?克劳斯在《一颗原子的时空之旅》中有过非常有趣的统计:恺撒遇刺,临死前他深深地呼吸了最后一口气息。平时我们呼吸的每口气中大约包含6×1022个氧原子,假设恺撒用尽全力呼吸的最后一口气比平时大上四倍,那口气中包含了大约24×1022个氧原子。而在整个地球的大气中,氧原子的总数是约4×1043个,也就是说,按平均计算,在大气中,每1022个氧原子中,包括了恺撒最后一口气吸过的5个氧原子。如果我们肺活量不变,此刻还是每口气呼吸6×1022个氧原子的话,那么,此刻我们每个人的每一次呼吸中,平均都有3个恺撒最后一口气中的氧原子。可以证明:我们都是曾经间接地参与了伟大历史的一份子。 
                
     统计同样可以增强我们对现实的选择能力:前苏联的拉里科夫跟踪研究15000名调查对象,初步统计表明,其中70%?80%是因为爱情而结婚的,15%?20%是因为人人结婚才结婚的,3%? 10%是因为个人利益而结婚的。进一步统计显示:因为爱情而结婚的人,百分之一百不会感到幸福;因为利益而结婚的人70%感到不幸福;因为别人结婚所以自己也随大流随便结婚的人55%不幸福。可以证明:如果你希望婚姻幸福,只要这个婚姻不是基于爱情,那你还是有指望的。如果你还是堕落到非爱不嫁非爱不娶的顽冥程度,那就属于自作孽了。善哉,善哉。

到底谁说的?

       在一所著名大学里的历史课上,教授正在向来自各国的同学提问:“要生存还是要灭亡。”这句名言出自谁的口中?
    沉寂了半天之后,古田站起来说:“威廉·莎士比亚。”
  “很好,被誉为“欧洲的良心”是指谁? “罗曼.罗兰。”
  “完全正确,同学们,刚才回答问题的是位日本学生,可是作为欧洲国家的学生却答不出来,太遗憾了。”教授不无感慨的说道。
  “干死小日本!” 突然有人发出一声喊叫。
  “谁!谁说的!”教授气得语音都颤抖了。
  “杜鲁门说的。”约翰站了起来。
  “你以为自己在干什么?”教授生气的说道。
  “麦当娜说的。”杰克也站了起来。
  “这真叫人恶心,简直无法无天了。”教授浑身气得发抖。
  “乔治.布什说的。”斯蒂芬也坐不住了。
    课堂立刻陷入了混乱之中,所有的学生都开始议论纷纷,一些学生开始起哄:”耶! 真TMD够劲。”
  “克林顿对莱温斯基说的。”玛丽毫无表情的接话道。
    教授愤怒得说不出话来,隔了一会,他大踏步的向门外走去,到门口时,他冷冷的看了所有人一眼:“我会回来的。”
  “阿诺得,施瓦辛格说的。”鲍勃终于插上话了。
    古田委屈的一摊手:”我没做什么坏事,为什么会这样?“
  “张国荣说的。”李小丽一脸崇拜的神情回答
    所有的学生都围成一个圈,汤姆有些垂头丧气:“该死,我们完了。”
  “希特勒说的。”伊汉诺娃立刻回答。
    赖特叹了口气:“今天将是一个很有意义的日子。”
  “本.拉登说的”。克瑞斯终于为自己能说出一个名字而得意。
  “这决非是我最得意的一天。”古田惭愧的说着。
  “托尼.布莱尔说的。”已经不知道谁在回答。
       这时校长和教授一起进来了,他脸色铁青,几乎是一字一顿的说道:“你们要为此付出代价!”
  “斯大林说的。”全班同学异口同声的回答。